{
  "status": "ok",
  "source_ts": "2026-07-30T05:29:47+00:00",
  "frozen_confirmatory_horizon": 21,
  "horizons": [
    10,
    42
  ],
  "phases": {
    "B": {
      "arm_enhanced": "arm_state",
      "h10": {
        "enhanced_mean_ic": 0.004607,
        "base_mean_ic": 0.003763,
        "mean_diff": 0.000843,
        "ci_lo": -0.007753,
        "ci_hi": 0.00944,
        "dm_p_mbb": 0.855572,
        "null_holds": true
      },
      "h42": {
        "enhanced_mean_ic": 0.021344,
        "base_mean_ic": 0.026023,
        "mean_diff": -0.00468,
        "ci_lo": -0.015743,
        "ci_hi": 0.006383,
        "dm_p_mbb": 0.407296,
        "null_holds": true
      },
      "null_holds_both": true
    },
    "C": {
      "arm_enhanced": "arm_macro",
      "h10": {
        "enhanced_mean_ic": 0.001645,
        "base_mean_ic": 0.003763,
        "mean_diff": -0.002118,
        "ci_lo": -0.016175,
        "ci_hi": 0.011939,
        "dm_p_mbb": 0.777111,
        "null_holds": true
      },
      "h42": {
        "enhanced_mean_ic": 0.027883,
        "base_mean_ic": 0.026023,
        "mean_diff": 0.00186,
        "ci_lo": -0.012094,
        "ci_hi": 0.015814,
        "dm_p_mbb": 0.809595,
        "null_holds": true
      },
      "null_holds_both": true
    },
    "D": {
      "arm_enhanced": "arm_rel",
      "h10": {
        "enhanced_mean_ic": 0.001974,
        "base_mean_ic": 0.003763,
        "mean_diff": -0.001789,
        "ci_lo": -0.012939,
        "ci_hi": 0.009361,
        "dm_p_mbb": 0.770615,
        "null_holds": true
      },
      "h42": {
        "enhanced_mean_ic": 0.021223,
        "base_mean_ic": 0.026023,
        "mean_diff": -0.004801,
        "ci_lo": -0.016365,
        "ci_hi": 0.006764,
        "dm_p_mbb": 0.418791,
        "null_holds": true
      },
      "null_holds_both": true
    },
    "E1": {
      "arm_enhanced": "arm_prop",
      "arm_base": "arm_base_self",
      "h10": {
        "enhanced_mean_ic": 0.006153,
        "base_mean_ic": 0.004503,
        "mean_diff": 0.00165,
        "ci_lo": -0.00877,
        "ci_hi": 0.012069,
        "dm_p_mbb": 0.778111,
        "null_holds": true
      },
      "h42": {
        "enhanced_mean_ic": 0.021235,
        "base_mean_ic": 0.023225,
        "mean_diff": -0.00199,
        "ci_lo": -0.010688,
        "ci_hi": 0.006708,
        "dm_p_mbb": 0.628686,
        "null_holds": true
      },
      "null_holds_both": true
    }
  },
  "horizon_robust_all": true,
  "null_criterion": "null_holds iff the differential's 95% HAC CI brackets zero",
  "notes": "Horizon-robustness sweep of the frozen h=21 Phase B/C/D nulls + the E1 (propagation-beyond-self) null. B/C/D differential = enhanced arm minus the shared plain arm_base (FEATURE_COLS, end_lag); Phase E1 differential = arm_prop minus arm_base_self (NOT the shared base -- propagation beyond SELF). EXPLORATORY (h!=21 = changed config); no confirmatory rows written. arm_base is shared across B/C/D per horizon (identical by construction).",
  "snapshot_ts": "2026-10-16T11:01:55.349042+00:00"
}