研究图谱
用编辑级确定性图表回答四个可信度问题：主张说了什么（IC 透视与结论区间）、预测与实现分差多大（校准带）、分数面形态如何（诊断）、每个数字从哪来（数据血缘）。全部服务端渲染、零客户端 JS、附完整数据表回退。
2026-10-16
56 panels · 25 daily / 11 cadence / 20 frozen
核心主张透视图
预注册主张（处理项−纯基本面的横截面月度 rank-IC 差分）的完整 OOS 呈现：逐月热力透视 + 结论森林图。
月度 rank-IC 热力透视
每月一行：US / CN / 合并的横截面 rank-IC，颜色围绕零双向发散（蓝=负、橙=正，色盲安全）。这是预注册主张的完整序列——包括失效的月份。
| month | US | CN | US+CN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01 | 0.3602 | -0.4103 | -0.0251 |
| 2021-02 | -0.3460 | -0.1558 | -0.2509 |
| 2021-03 | -0.1265 | -0.0721 | -0.0993 |
| 2021-04 | 0.1676 | -0.0258 | 0.0709 |
| 2021-05 | 0.0032 | 0.0827 | 0.0032 |
| 2021-06 | -0.0903 | 0.0082 | -0.0410 |
| 2021-07 | 0.0657 | -0.1626 | -0.0484 |
| 2021-08 | -0.0099 | -0.1087 | -0.0593 |
| 2021-09 | -0.0089 | -0.1446 | -0.0767 |
| 2021-10 | 0.0416 | 0.0911 | 0.0664 |
| 2021-11 | -0.0961 | -0.2407 | -0.1684 |
| 2021-12 | -0.1318 | -0.3087 | -0.2202 |
| 2022-01 | -0.0458 | 0.0427 | 0.0427 |
| 2022-02 | -0.0085 | 0.0987 | 0.0451 |
| 2022-03 | -0.0709 | 0.0933 | 0.0112 |
| 2022-04 | 0.0104 | 0.2805 | 0.1454 |
| 2022-05 | -0.0817 | 0.0539 | -0.0139 |
| 2022-06 | 0.0954 | 0.0244 | 0.0599 |
| 2022-07 | -0.0699 | -0.0804 | -0.0751 |
| 2022-08 | -0.1460 | -0.0439 | -0.0949 |
| 2022-09 | -0.0498 | 0.1222 | 0.0362 |
| 2022-10 | 0.1079 | -0.1644 | -0.0283 |
| 2022-11 | -0.2172 | 0.0063 | -0.1055 |
| 2022-12 | 0.3857 | 0.0121 | 0.1989 |
| 2023-01 | 0.0418 | -0.1958 | -0.0770 |
| 2023-02 | 0.1567 | 0.0334 | 0.0951 |
| 2023-03 | -0.2534 | -0.2666 | -0.2600 |
| 2023-04 | 0.0964 | 0.0053 | 0.0508 |
| 2023-05 | 0.0573 | 0.0571 | 0.0572 |
| 2023-06 | 0.0894 | -0.4163 | -0.1634 |
| 2023-07 | -0.1583 | 0.0144 | -0.0720 |
| 2023-08 | -0.1027 | -0.1173 | -0.1100 |
| 2023-09 | -0.1840 | -0.0382 | -0.0382 |
| 2023-10 | 0.0489 | -0.0060 | 0.0215 |
| 2023-11 | 0.1499 | 0.0209 | 0.0854 |
| 2023-12 | -0.1722 | -0.2930 | -0.2326 |
| 2024-01 | 0.0439 | 0.1747 | 0.1093 |
| 2024-02 | 0.0188 | 0.1052 | 0.0620 |
| 2024-03 | 0.0664 | -0.0922 | 0.0664 |
| 2024-04 | -0.0355 | -0.1362 | -0.0858 |
| 2024-05 | 0.1023 | 0.0643 | 0.0833 |
| 2024-06 | -0.1953 | -0.0430 | -0.1191 |
| 2024-07 | -0.1083 | -0.0916 | -0.1000 |
| 2024-08 | 0.0067 | 0.0996 | 0.0531 |
| 2024-09 | 0.0496 | 0.0737 | 0.0616 |
| 2024-10 | -0.1390 | -0.0532 | -0.0961 |
| 2024-11 | 0.1648 | -0.1119 | 0.0264 |
| 2024-12 | 0.0111 | 0.0169 | 0.0140 |
| 2025-01 | 0.0371 | 0.3004 | 0.3004 |
| 2025-02 | 0.1769 | -0.1576 | 0.0096 |
| 2025-03 | 0.1322 | -0.0468 | 0.0427 |
| 2025-04 | 0.0538 | -0.0173 | 0.0183 |
| 2025-05 | 0.3855 | 0.0395 | 0.2125 |
| 2025-06 | 0.0904 | -0.0361 | 0.0272 |
| 2025-07 | -0.0570 | 0.2312 | 0.0871 |
| 2025-08 | -0.0050 | 0.0692 | 0.0321 |
| 2025-09 | 0.1336 | -0.2549 | -0.0607 |
| 2025-10 | -0.0437 | -0.0842 | -0.0640 |
| 2025-11 | -0.1345 | 0.0849 | -0.0248 |
| 2025-12 | -0.0009 | -0.0864 | -0.0436 |
| 2026-01 | -0.0182 | 0.0170 | -0.0006 |
| 2026-02 | 0.0092 | -0.0140 | -0.0024 |
| 2026-03 | 0.1483 | 0.1865 | 0.1674 |
| 2026-04 | 0.0364 | 0.1681 | 0.1023 |
| 2026-05 | -0.1005 | 0.0678 | -0.0164 |
| 2026-06 | — | -0.0175 | -0.0175 |
66 个月 · 2021-01 → 2026-06
样本期稳定性（描述性）
| series | 前半样本 | 后半样本 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | -0.0157 | 0.0267 | 0.0424 |
| CN | -0.0584 | 0.0054 | 0.0638 |
| US+CN | -0.0347 | 0.0218 | 0.0565 |
描述性，非检验：前半 33 个月（2021-01 → 2023-09）对照后半 33 个月（2023-10 → 2026-06）；Δ = 后半均值 − 前半均值，均值仅计有数据月份，不作显著性声明。
结论森林图：预注册区间
合并 rank-IC 的点估计与 95% 置信区间，对照零线与实际显著域 SESOI（±0.01）。判定 NULL 且区间窄于等价域 = 有信息量的零结果——这是纪律的胜利，不是失败。
| 指标 | 数值 |
|---|---|
| 点估计 | -0.0088 |
| 95% CI | [-0.0336, 0.0159] |
| SESOI ±0.01（等价域边界） | 0.0100 |
| 裁决 | NULL |
| p | 0.484 |
| 样本外月数 | 71 |
判定：NULL · p=0.484 · n=71 个月
预测—实现分差带
每月走前（walk-forward）校准的预测概率带（prob_min–prob_max）与当月实现基准率的对照：点落在带内=覆盖，带外=分差。预测的意义不在点命中，而在区间的诚实校准。
数据表（无障碍与降级回退） — US
| month | 预测概率带 | 实现基准率 | in-band | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prob_min | prob_max | |||
| 2022-01 | 0.374 | 0.653 | 0.404 | ✓ |
| 2022-02 | 0.373 | 0.644 | 0.763 | ✗ |
| 2022-03 | 0.409 | 0.622 | 0.199 | ✗ |
| 2022-04 | 0.343 | 0.613 | 0.564 | ✓ |
| 2022-05 | 0.292 | 0.581 | 0.117 | ✗ |
| 2022-06 | 0.279 | 0.566 | 0.883 | ✗ |
| 2022-07 | 0.394 | 0.620 | 0.385 | ✗ |
| 2022-08 | 0.334 | 0.596 | 0.050 | ✗ |
| 2022-09 | 0.286 | 0.558 | 0.852 | ✗ |
| 2022-10 | 0.379 | 0.599 | 0.850 | ✗ |
| 2022-11 | 0.387 | 0.597 | 0.193 | ✗ |
| 2022-12 | 0.383 | 0.568 | 0.804 | ✗ |
| 2023-01 | 0.429 | 0.595 | 0.284 | ✗ |
| 2023-02 | 0.410 | 0.579 | 0.420 | ✓ |
| 2023-03 | 0.381 | 0.572 | 0.441 | ✓ |
| 2023-04 | 0.407 | 0.574 | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 2023-05 | 0.401 | 0.545 | 0.901 | ✗ |
| 2023-06 | 0.435 | 0.567 | 0.705 | ✗ |
| 2023-07 | 0.428 | 0.579 | 0.283 | ✗ |
| 2023-08 | 0.414 | 0.557 | 0.107 | ✗ |
| 2023-09 | 0.431 | 0.556 | 0.245 | ✗ |
| 2023-10 | 0.387 | 0.579 | 0.883 | ✗ |
| 2023-11 | 0.392 | 0.554 | 0.874 | ✗ |
| 2023-12 | 0.402 | 0.558 | 0.447 | ✓ |
| 2024-01 | 0.391 | 0.561 | 0.713 | ✗ |
| 2024-02 | 0.405 | 0.566 | 0.763 | ✗ |
| 2024-03 | 0.448 | 0.568 | 0.274 | ✗ |
| 2024-04 | 0.410 | 0.562 | 0.576 | ✗ |
| 2024-05 | 0.442 | 0.563 | 0.396 | ✗ |
| 2024-06 | 0.406 | 0.563 | 0.700 | ✗ |
| 2024-07 | 0.431 | 0.564 | 0.645 | ✗ |
| 2024-08 | 0.415 | 0.564 | 0.633 | ✗ |
| 2024-09 | 0.411 | 0.574 | 0.464 | ✓ |
| 2024-10 | 0.452 | 0.573 | 0.772 | ✗ |
| 2024-11 | 0.451 | 0.570 | 0.114 | ✗ |
| 2024-12 | 0.410 | 0.557 | 0.679 | ✗ |
| 2025-01 | 0.439 | 0.559 | 0.386 | ✗ |
| 2025-02 | 0.426 | 0.564 | 0.316 | ✗ |
| 2025-03 | 0.418 | 0.540 | 0.338 | ✗ |
| 2025-04 | 0.433 | 0.538 | 0.709 | ✗ |
| 2025-05 | 0.443 | 0.548 | 0.750 | ✗ |
| 2025-06 | 0.441 | 0.549 | 0.610 | ✗ |
| 2025-07 | 0.440 | 0.549 | 0.668 | ✗ |
| 2025-08 | 0.438 | 0.564 | 0.509 | ✓ |
| 2025-09 | 0.479 | 0.558 | 0.391 | ✗ |
| 2025-10 | 0.447 | 0.558 | 0.597 | ✗ |
| 2025-11 | 0.469 | 0.548 | 0.554 | ✗ |
| 2025-12 | 0.459 | 0.553 | 0.667 | ✗ |
| 2026-01 | 0.458 | 0.568 | 0.587 | ✗ |
| 2026-02 | 0.460 | 0.559 | 0.127 | ✗ |
| 2026-03 | 0.429 | 0.557 | 0.677 | ✗ |
| 2026-04 | 0.440 | 0.554 | 0.431 | ✗ |
| 2026-05 | 0.436 | 0.553 | 0.636 | ✗ |
| 2026-06 | 0.458 | 0.550 | 0.636 | ✗ |
数据表（无障碍与降级回退） — CN
| month | 预测概率带 | 实现基准率 | in-band | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prob_min | prob_max | |||
| 2022-01 | 0.289 | 0.490 | 0.353 | ✓ |
| 2022-02 | 0.325 | 0.463 | 0.133 | ✗ |
| 2022-03 | 0.328 | 0.439 | 0.204 | ✗ |
| 2022-04 | 0.304 | 0.426 | 0.623 | ✗ |
| 2022-05 | 0.372 | 0.426 | 0.773 | ✗ |
| 2022-06 | 0.390 | 0.446 | 0.163 | ✗ |
| 2022-07 | 0.379 | 0.425 | 0.343 | ✗ |
| 2022-08 | 0.367 | 0.421 | 0.170 | ✗ |
| 2022-09 | 0.379 | 0.409 | 0.627 | ✗ |
| 2022-10 | 0.367 | 0.425 | 0.820 | ✗ |
| 2022-11 | 0.377 | 0.445 | 0.327 | ✗ |
| 2022-12 | 0.375 | 0.440 | 0.797 | ✗ |
| 2023-01 | 0.393 | 0.455 | 0.527 | ✗ |
| 2023-02 | 0.376 | 0.473 | 0.353 | ✗ |
| 2023-03 | 0.382 | 0.466 | 0.403 | ✓ |
| 2023-04 | 0.384 | 0.462 | 0.237 | ✗ |
| 2023-05 | 0.380 | 0.450 | 0.560 | ✗ |
| 2023-06 | 0.377 | 0.455 | 0.720 | ✗ |
| 2023-07 | 0.372 | 0.476 | 0.150 | ✗ |
| 2023-08 | 0.393 | 0.458 | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 2023-09 | 0.376 | 0.462 | 0.380 | ✓ |
| 2023-10 | 0.378 | 0.450 | 0.287 | ✗ |
| 2023-11 | 0.397 | 0.439 | 0.327 | ✗ |
| 2023-12 | 0.386 | 0.437 | 0.313 | ✗ |
| 2024-01 | 0.364 | 0.440 | 0.940 | ✗ |
| 2024-02 | 0.397 | 0.446 | 0.423 | ✓ |
| 2024-03 | 0.396 | 0.446 | 0.657 | ✗ |
| 2024-04 | 0.404 | 0.451 | 0.423 | ✓ |
| 2024-05 | 0.400 | 0.450 | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 2024-06 | 0.394 | 0.444 | 0.361 | ✗ |
| 2024-07 | 0.405 | 0.441 | 0.151 | ✗ |
| 2024-08 | 0.387 | 0.436 | 0.936 | ✗ |
| 2024-09 | 0.417 | 0.446 | 0.443 | ✓ |
| 2024-10 | 0.419 | 0.447 | 0.497 | ✗ |
| 2024-11 | 0.423 | 0.447 | 0.508 | ✗ |
| 2024-12 | 0.407 | 0.447 | 0.353 | ✗ |
| 2025-01 | 0.406 | 0.450 | 0.560 | ✗ |
| 2025-02 | 0.414 | 0.452 | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 2025-03 | 0.412 | 0.448 | 0.287 | ✗ |
| 2025-04 | 0.413 | 0.445 | 0.651 | ✗ |
| 2025-05 | 0.421 | 0.449 | 0.621 | ✗ |
| 2025-06 | 0.420 | 0.454 | 0.750 | ✗ |
| 2025-07 | 0.422 | 0.463 | 0.776 | ✗ |
| 2025-08 | 0.420 | 0.467 | 0.407 | ✗ |
| 2025-09 | 0.435 | 0.465 | 0.513 | ✗ |
| 2025-10 | 0.429 | 0.467 | 0.319 | ✗ |
| 2025-11 | 0.421 | 0.462 | 0.542 | ✗ |
| 2025-12 | 0.431 | 0.464 | 0.386 | ✗ |
| 2026-01 | 0.416 | 0.463 | 0.411 | ✗ |
| 2026-02 | 0.426 | 0.467 | 0.264 | ✗ |
| 2026-03 | 0.420 | 0.462 | 0.582 | ✗ |
| 2026-04 | 0.429 | 0.459 | 0.294 | ✗ |
| 2026-05 | 0.432 | 0.456 | 0.237 | ✗ |
| 2026-06 | 0.427 | 0.454 | 0.625 | ✗ |
US 54 个月 · 2022-01 → 2026-06 · CN 54 个月 · 2022-01 → 2026-06
月度 ECE 分差
期望校准误差（ECE，越低越好）逐月条形：校准质量随月份波动，长周期完整视角防止选择性呈现。
数据表（无障碍与降级回退） — US
| month | ece_oos | ≥ pooled |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | 0.178 | ✓ |
| 2022-02 | 0.193 | ✓ |
| 2022-03 | 0.366 | ✓ |
| 2022-04 | 0.038 | ✓ |
| 2022-05 | 0.406 | ✓ |
| 2022-06 | 0.397 | ✓ |
| 2022-07 | 0.177 | ✓ |
| 2022-08 | 0.480 | ✓ |
| 2022-09 | 0.369 | ✓ |
| 2022-10 | 0.313 | ✓ |
| 2022-11 | 0.361 | ✓ |
| 2022-12 | 0.278 | ✓ |
| 2023-01 | 0.268 | ✓ |
| 2023-02 | 0.113 | ✓ |
| 2023-03 | 0.094 | ✓ |
| 2023-04 | 0.264 | ✓ |
| 2023-05 | 0.393 | ✓ |
| 2023-06 | 0.169 | ✓ |
| 2023-07 | 0.270 | ✓ |
| 2023-08 | 0.423 | ✓ |
| 2023-09 | 0.275 | ✓ |
| 2023-10 | 0.352 | ✓ |
| 2023-11 | 0.358 | ✓ |
| 2023-12 | 0.072 | ✓ |
| 2024-01 | 0.192 | ✓ |
| 2024-02 | 0.238 | ✓ |
| 2024-03 | 0.263 | ✓ |
| 2024-04 | 0.051 | ✓ |
| 2024-05 | 0.150 | ✓ |
| 2024-06 | 0.183 | ✓ |
| 2024-07 | 0.117 | ✓ |
| 2024-08 | 0.098 | ✓ |
| 2024-09 | 0.113 | ✓ |
| 2024-10 | 0.241 | ✓ |
| 2024-11 | 0.424 | ✓ |
| 2024-12 | 0.156 | ✓ |
| 2025-01 | 0.141 | ✓ |
| 2025-02 | 0.214 | ✓ |
| 2025-03 | 0.172 | ✓ |
| 2025-04 | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 2025-05 | 0.227 | ✓ |
| 2025-06 | 0.086 | ✓ |
| 2025-07 | 0.140 | ✓ |
| 2025-08 | 0.038 | ✓ |
| 2025-09 | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2025-10 | 0.064 | ✓ |
| 2025-11 | 0.059 | ✓ |
| 2025-12 | 0.133 | ✓ |
| 2026-01 | 0.049 | ✓ |
| 2026-02 | 0.405 | ✓ |
| 2026-03 | 0.154 | ✓ |
| 2026-04 | 0.092 | ✓ |
| 2026-05 | 0.114 | ✓ |
| 2026-06 | 0.121 | ✓ |
数据表（无障碍与降级回退） — CN
| month | ece_oos | ≥ pooled |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | 0.113 | ✓ |
| 2022-02 | 0.293 | ✓ |
| 2022-03 | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 2022-04 | 0.235 | ✓ |
| 2022-05 | 0.367 | ✓ |
| 2022-06 | 0.273 | ✓ |
| 2022-07 | 0.072 | ✓ |
| 2022-08 | 0.241 | ✓ |
| 2022-09 | 0.226 | ✓ |
| 2022-10 | 0.409 | ✓ |
| 2022-11 | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 2022-12 | 0.371 | ✓ |
| 2023-01 | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 2023-02 | 0.111 | ✓ |
| 2023-03 | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2023-04 | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 2023-05 | 0.134 | ✓ |
| 2023-06 | 0.281 | ✓ |
| 2023-07 | 0.306 | ✓ |
| 2023-08 | 0.077 | ✓ |
| 2023-09 | 0.067 | ✓ |
| 2023-10 | 0.148 | ✓ |
| 2023-11 | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 2023-12 | 0.114 | ✓ |
| 2024-01 | 0.520 | ✓ |
| 2024-02 | 0.015 | ✗ |
| 2024-03 | 0.223 | ✓ |
| 2024-04 | 0.016 | ✗ |
| 2024-05 | 0.172 | ✓ |
| 2024-06 | 0.076 | ✓ |
| 2024-07 | 0.281 | ✓ |
| 2024-08 | 0.510 | ✓ |
| 2024-09 | 0.007 | ✗ |
| 2024-10 | 0.059 | ✓ |
| 2024-11 | 0.069 | ✓ |
| 2024-12 | 0.087 | ✓ |
| 2025-01 | 0.120 | ✓ |
| 2025-02 | 0.017 | ✗ |
| 2025-03 | 0.156 | ✓ |
| 2025-04 | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 2025-05 | 0.177 | ✓ |
| 2025-06 | 0.303 | ✓ |
| 2025-07 | 0.323 | ✓ |
| 2025-08 | 0.051 | ✓ |
| 2025-09 | 0.056 | ✓ |
| 2025-10 | 0.139 | ✓ |
| 2025-11 | 0.089 | ✓ |
| 2025-12 | 0.069 | ✓ |
| 2026-01 | 0.043 | ✓ |
| 2026-02 | 0.190 | ✓ |
| 2026-03 | 0.133 | ✓ |
| 2026-04 | 0.157 | ✓ |
| 2026-05 | 0.214 | ✓ |
| 2026-06 | 0.180 | ✓ |
method=platt · walk_forward=true · min_train_months=12
Walk-forward calibration reliability (display-only, leakage-safe). For each realized OOS month T, the Platt calibration map is refit on all realized (score, forward-return) pairs STRICTLY before T, then T's tickers are predicted; T's own realized outcome scores the prediction (backward audit). Per-month OOS ECE shows whether the calibrated P(up) stays trustworthy as the realized sample grows; the pooled reliability diagram bins all walk-forward OOS predictions (mean predicted P vs empirical up-frequency). Only the 2-param display map is refit — the frozen LightGBM learner is NEVER touched, and no ledger / frozen surface / research estimator is affected. NOT a research claim and NOT a path to positive rank-IC (research verdict ledger #49: combined rank-IC −0.0088, NULL).
分数面诊断透视图
派生自冻结的 confirmatory OOS 分数横截面（与 rank-IC 同源），纯描述性统计：每月每区域的分数离散度、宇宙宽度与月度秩自相关。秩自相关 = 相邻月重叠 ticker 上分数的横截面 Spearman 秩相关（各区域独立成链）；重叠不足 30 只时诚实留空。只呈现测量，无收益口径、无投资含义。
月度分数离散度
每月每区域横截面分数的标准差（竖带）与四分位距 IQR（细线）：分数面展幅的逐月测量。离散度是幅度不是方向——它与当月 IC 好坏没有红绿含义。
CN
y-max 1.0
US
y-max 1.2
score_stdscore_iqr
数据表（无障碍与降级回退） — 月度分数离散度
| month | region | n | score_mean | score_std | score_iqr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01 | cn | 929 | -0.968630 | 0.607444 | 0.695692 |
| 2021-01 | us | 446 | -1.803919 | 0.970988 | 0.994268 |
| 2021-02 | cn | 929 | -0.904301 | 0.712405 | 0.850033 |
| 2021-02 | us | 447 | -1.277035 | 0.817707 | 0.905523 |
| 2021-03 | cn | 929 | -0.875621 | 0.648535 | 0.957276 |
| 2021-03 | us | 450 | -1.233293 | 0.965546 | 1.171209 |
| 2021-04 | cn | 929 | -0.989997 | 0.738447 | 0.754001 |
| 2021-04 | us | 447 | -1.240286 | 0.767775 | 0.724382 |
| 2021-05 | cn | 929 | -0.960080 | 0.592006 | 0.569760 |
| 2021-05 | us | 448 | -1.020593 | 0.595401 | 0.417474 |
| 2021-06 | cn | 929 | -1.030428 | 0.628251 | 0.608321 |
| 2021-06 | us | 449 | -1.041233 | 0.402482 | 0.410575 |
| 2021-07 | cn | 929 | -0.878893 | 0.646797 | 0.762930 |
| 2021-07 | us | 450 | -1.307550 | 0.584086 | 0.506730 |
| 2021-08 | cn | 929 | -0.848722 | 0.676737 | 0.786839 |
| 2021-08 | us | 452 | -1.142932 | 0.525144 | 0.541864 |
| 2021-09 | cn | 929 | -0.813071 | 0.556875 | 0.786933 |
| 2021-09 | us | 454 | -1.202428 | 0.743220 | 0.923951 |
| 2021-10 | cn | 929 | -0.887810 | 0.544420 | 0.719782 |
| 2021-10 | us | 451 | -1.407846 | 0.627094 | 0.652764 |
| 2021-11 | cn | 929 | -0.908783 | 0.539551 | 0.693638 |
| 2021-11 | us | 451 | -2.369059 | 1.001488 | 0.900779 |
| 2021-12 | cn | 929 | -1.026572 | 0.631712 | 0.562529 |
| 2021-12 | us | 454 | -1.061588 | 0.650142 | 0.799064 |
| 2022-01 | cn | 929 | -0.822690 | 0.514215 | 0.590746 |
| 2022-01 | us | 453 | -1.030078 | 0.684553 | 0.692824 |
| 2022-02 | cn | 929 | -0.779002 | 0.488618 | 0.668709 |
| 2022-02 | us | 454 | -1.125855 | 0.633121 | 0.779406 |
| 2022-03 | cn | 929 | -0.814316 | 0.500521 | 0.617175 |
| 2022-03 | us | 455 | -0.840069 | 0.560294 | 0.690786 |
| 2022-04 | cn | 929 | -0.631468 | 0.605603 | 0.854710 |
| 2022-04 | us | 457 | -0.736137 | 0.630930 | 0.840711 |
| 2022-05 | cn | 929 | -0.805496 | 0.472782 | 0.520550 |
| 2022-05 | us | 458 | -0.639257 | 0.527033 | 0.624979 |
| 2022-06 | cn | 929 | -0.804552 | 0.644266 | 0.850212 |
| 2022-06 | us | 463 | -0.622746 | 0.512175 | 0.583876 |
| 2022-07 | cn | 929 | -0.939235 | 0.553681 | 0.500780 |
| 2022-07 | us | 460 | -1.140019 | 0.516652 | 0.554314 |
| 2022-08 | cn | 929 | -0.918923 | 0.533073 | 0.459365 |
| 2022-08 | us | 460 | -0.876621 | 0.633167 | 0.525180 |
| 2022-09 | cn | 929 | -1.012574 | 0.449638 | 0.418260 |
| 2022-09 | us | 462 | -0.619312 | 0.637875 | 0.667135 |
| 2022-10 | cn | 929 | -0.919965 | 0.546084 | 0.670544 |
| 2022-10 | us | 463 | -1.041065 | 0.530718 | 0.478167 |
| 2022-11 | cn | 929 | -0.886037 | 0.478607 | 0.433291 |
| 2022-11 | us | 465 | -1.078057 | 0.549840 | 0.503701 |
| 2022-12 | cn | 929 | -1.015440 | 0.523674 | 0.412068 |
| 2022-12 | us | 467 | -0.895471 | 0.517775 | 0.461954 |
| 2023-01 | cn | 929 | -1.017684 | 0.440150 | 0.388724 |
| 2023-01 | us | 468 | -1.033564 | 0.426259 | 0.439853 |
| 2023-02 | cn | 929 | -1.009632 | 0.478857 | 0.420324 |
| 2023-02 | us | 467 | -0.977336 | 0.424300 | 0.440751 |
| 2023-03 | cn | 929 | -1.135412 | 0.413829 | 0.357100 |
| 2023-03 | us | 470 | -1.086357 | 0.523918 | 0.487156 |
| 2023-04 | cn | 929 | -0.983883 | 0.554108 | 0.518648 |
| 2023-04 | us | 469 | -1.135024 | 0.473266 | 0.460979 |
| 2023-05 | cn | 929 | -0.976074 | 0.454264 | 0.338007 |
| 2023-05 | us | 476 | -0.810238 | 0.373035 | 0.388340 |
| 2023-06 | cn | 929 | -1.091934 | 0.490001 | 0.410876 |
| 2023-06 | us | 477 | -1.052575 | 0.499006 | 0.512509 |
| 2023-07 | cn | 929 | -1.042935 | 0.513255 | 0.371798 |
| 2023-07 | us | 477 | -1.303185 | 0.499398 | 0.417522 |
| 2023-08 | cn | 929 | -1.006461 | 0.364338 | 0.334314 |
| 2023-08 | us | 478 | -1.008363 | 0.435835 | 0.382556 |
| 2023-09 | cn | 929 | -1.354986 | 0.441241 | 0.263240 |
| 2023-09 | us | 480 | -1.093619 | 0.482885 | 0.536567 |
| 2023-10 | cn | 929 | -1.055979 | 0.453643 | 0.383085 |
| 2023-10 | us | 481 | -1.522772 | 0.712677 | 0.601578 |
| 2023-11 | cn | 929 | -1.030237 | 0.295160 | 0.247496 |
| 2023-11 | us | 479 | -0.978462 | 0.551668 | 0.581620 |
| 2023-12 | cn | 929 | -1.066149 | 0.433282 | 0.286619 |
| 2023-12 | us | 482 | -0.800189 | 0.664662 | 0.896293 |
| 2024-01 | cn | 929 | -0.778642 | 0.687690 | 1.028706 |
| 2024-01 | us | 480 | -0.891079 | 0.609699 | 0.697746 |
| 2024-02 | cn | 929 | -0.858540 | 0.616512 | 0.492208 |
| 2024-02 | us | 480 | -0.860500 | 0.558219 | 0.562135 |
| 2024-03 | cn | 929 | -0.857790 | 0.628415 | 0.625048 |
| 2024-03 | us | 484 | -0.977860 | 0.485205 | 0.599431 |
| 2024-04 | cn | 929 | -0.702123 | 0.628578 | 1.015226 |
| 2024-04 | us | 484 | -0.851154 | 0.665510 | 0.790277 |
| 2024-05 | cn | 929 | -0.785230 | 0.536939 | 0.582271 |
| 2024-05 | us | 483 | -1.044772 | 0.458069 | 0.479083 |
| 2024-06 | cn | 929 | -0.735804 | 0.685802 | 0.816126 |
| 2024-06 | us | 486 | -0.944661 | 0.480558 | 0.486066 |
| 2024-07 | cn | 929 | -0.785043 | 0.541133 | 0.723046 |
| 2024-07 | us | 485 | -0.877716 | 0.509125 | 0.531877 |
| 2024-08 | cn | 929 | -0.867895 | 0.639512 | 0.554166 |
| 2024-08 | us | 485 | -0.970363 | 0.495269 | 0.491567 |
| 2024-09 | cn | 929 | -0.506444 | 0.573588 | 0.846324 |
| 2024-09 | us | 488 | -1.085456 | 0.629806 | 0.595795 |
| 2024-10 | cn | 929 | -0.658331 | 0.621891 | 0.500172 |
| 2024-10 | us | 485 | -0.844312 | 0.602010 | 0.780926 |
| 2024-11 | cn | 929 | -0.794575 | 0.563723 | 0.562505 |
| 2024-11 | us | 486 | -0.891740 | 0.599738 | 0.917363 |
| 2024-12 | cn | 929 | -0.777762 | 0.606364 | 0.555016 |
| 2024-12 | us | 489 | -0.760612 | 0.629662 | 0.941616 |
| 2025-01 | cn | 929 | -0.808871 | 0.661270 | 0.578017 |
| 2025-01 | us | 487 | -0.770192 | 0.545320 | 0.747118 |
| 2025-02 | cn | 929 | -1.020793 | 0.550463 | 0.432139 |
| 2025-02 | us | 487 | -0.757537 | 0.748500 | 1.211827 |
| 2025-03 | cn | 929 | -0.852193 | 0.424658 | 0.260650 |
| 2025-03 | us | 491 | -0.490733 | 0.502731 | 0.608520 |
| 2025-04 | cn | 929 | -0.829235 | 0.550959 | 0.433599 |
| 2025-04 | us | 487 | -0.731768 | 0.464013 | 0.477657 |
| 2025-05 | cn | 929 | -0.904304 | 0.423897 | 0.278777 |
| 2025-05 | us | 488 | -0.843571 | 0.485587 | 0.506869 |
| 2025-06 | cn | 929 | -0.938749 | 0.486708 | 0.370322 |
| 2025-06 | us | 488 | -0.714343 | 0.589886 | 0.609857 |
| 2025-07 | cn | 929 | -0.963687 | 0.469260 | 0.305976 |
| 2025-07 | us | 491 | -0.744816 | 0.433765 | 0.446930 |
| 2025-08 | cn | 929 | -0.865982 | 0.522728 | 0.420258 |
| 2025-08 | us | 492 | -0.920630 | 0.513268 | 0.462433 |
| 2025-09 | cn | 929 | -0.938296 | 0.497832 | 0.377137 |
| 2025-09 | us | 492 | -0.940823 | 0.446684 | 0.507757 |
| 2025-10 | cn | 929 | -0.923985 | 0.494178 | 0.393557 |
| 2025-10 | us | 492 | -0.919232 | 0.607637 | 0.682329 |
| 2025-11 | cn | 929 | -0.790942 | 0.552163 | 0.477133 |
| 2025-11 | us | 492 | -0.738885 | 0.613702 | 0.639486 |
| 2025-12 | cn | 929 | -0.835679 | 0.530927 | 0.483402 |
| 2025-12 | us | 492 | -0.878623 | 0.477707 | 0.495161 |
| 2026-01 | cn | 929 | -0.775898 | 0.452158 | 0.483602 |
| 2026-01 | us | 492 | -1.116158 | 0.677073 | 0.878776 |
| 2026-02 | cn | 929 | -0.838041 | 0.393623 | 0.407605 |
| 2026-02 | us | 492 | -0.732795 | 0.639202 | 0.794834 |
| 2026-03 | cn | 929 | -0.702310 | 0.569996 | 0.684400 |
| 2026-03 | us | 492 | -0.699964 | 0.571889 | 0.509877 |
| 2026-04 | cn | 929 | -0.719175 | 0.548605 | 0.590346 |
| 2026-04 | us | 492 | -0.622065 | 0.635706 | 0.955353 |
| 2026-05 | cn | 929 | -0.682982 | 0.581751 | 0.684999 |
| 2026-05 | us | 492 | -0.606777 | 0.685543 | 1.098010 |
| 2026-06 | cn | 929 | -0.601925 | 0.578754 | 0.683261 |
| 2026-06 | us | 492 | -0.306872 | 0.707582 | 1.194686 |
| 2026-07 | cn | 929 | -0.422610 | 0.662011 | 0.957080 |
| 2026-08 | cn | 929 | -0.431804 | 0.675175 | 0.972032 |
CN 68 个月 · 2021-01 → 2026-08 · US 66 个月 · 2021-01 → 2026-06
宇宙宽度
每月每区域参与打分的股票数（n）：横截面宽度的诚实记录。窄月份的解释力天然更弱——宽度本身是读数的一部分。
CN
n-max 929
US
n-max 492
数据表（无障碍与降级回退） — 宇宙宽度
| month | region | n |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-01 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-01 | us | 446 |
| 2021-02 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-02 | us | 447 |
| 2021-03 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-03 | us | 450 |
| 2021-04 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-04 | us | 447 |
| 2021-05 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-05 | us | 448 |
| 2021-06 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-06 | us | 449 |
| 2021-07 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-07 | us | 450 |
| 2021-08 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-08 | us | 452 |
| 2021-09 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-09 | us | 454 |
| 2021-10 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-10 | us | 451 |
| 2021-11 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-11 | us | 451 |
| 2021-12 | cn | 929 |
| 2021-12 | us | 454 |
| 2022-01 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-01 | us | 453 |
| 2022-02 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-02 | us | 454 |
| 2022-03 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-03 | us | 455 |
| 2022-04 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-04 | us | 457 |
| 2022-05 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-05 | us | 458 |
| 2022-06 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-06 | us | 463 |
| 2022-07 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-07 | us | 460 |
| 2022-08 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-08 | us | 460 |
| 2022-09 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-09 | us | 462 |
| 2022-10 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-10 | us | 463 |
| 2022-11 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-11 | us | 465 |
| 2022-12 | cn | 929 |
| 2022-12 | us | 467 |
| 2023-01 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-01 | us | 468 |
| 2023-02 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-02 | us | 467 |
| 2023-03 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-03 | us | 470 |
| 2023-04 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-04 | us | 469 |
| 2023-05 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-05 | us | 476 |
| 2023-06 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-06 | us | 477 |
| 2023-07 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-07 | us | 477 |
| 2023-08 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-08 | us | 478 |
| 2023-09 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-09 | us | 480 |
| 2023-10 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-10 | us | 481 |
| 2023-11 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-11 | us | 479 |
| 2023-12 | cn | 929 |
| 2023-12 | us | 482 |
| 2024-01 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-01 | us | 480 |
| 2024-02 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-02 | us | 480 |
| 2024-03 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-03 | us | 484 |
| 2024-04 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-04 | us | 484 |
| 2024-05 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-05 | us | 483 |
| 2024-06 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-06 | us | 486 |
| 2024-07 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-07 | us | 485 |
| 2024-08 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-08 | us | 485 |
| 2024-09 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-09 | us | 488 |
| 2024-10 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-10 | us | 485 |
| 2024-11 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-11 | us | 486 |
| 2024-12 | cn | 929 |
| 2024-12 | us | 489 |
| 2025-01 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-01 | us | 487 |
| 2025-02 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-02 | us | 487 |
| 2025-03 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-03 | us | 491 |
| 2025-04 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-04 | us | 487 |
| 2025-05 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-05 | us | 488 |
| 2025-06 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-06 | us | 488 |
| 2025-07 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-07 | us | 491 |
| 2025-08 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-08 | us | 492 |
| 2025-09 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-09 | us | 492 |
| 2025-10 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-10 | us | 492 |
| 2025-11 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-11 | us | 492 |
| 2025-12 | cn | 929 |
| 2025-12 | us | 492 |
| 2026-01 | cn | 929 |
| 2026-01 | us | 492 |
| 2026-02 | cn | 929 |
| 2026-02 | us | 492 |
| 2026-03 | cn | 929 |
| 2026-03 | us | 492 |
| 2026-04 | cn | 929 |
| 2026-04 | us | 492 |
| 2026-05 | cn | 929 |
| 2026-05 | us | 492 |
| 2026-06 | cn | 929 |
| 2026-06 | us | 492 |
| 2026-07 | cn | 929 |
| 2026-08 | cn | 929 |
分数惯性 · 月度秩自相关
相邻有数据月之间重叠 ticker 上分数排名的横截面 Spearman 秩相关（各区域独立成链，断点 = 重叠不足或不可计算）。虚线参考 0 与 0.5：读数越接近 0.5，分数面的月度排名惯性越强。
CNUS
数据表（无障碍与降级回退） — 分数惯性 · 月度秩自相关
| month | region | rank_autocorr |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-01 | cn | — |
| 2021-01 | us | — |
| 2021-02 | cn | 0.585803 |
| 2021-02 | us | 0.750120 |
| 2021-03 | cn | 0.194064 |
| 2021-03 | us | 0.698055 |
| 2021-04 | cn | 0.266411 |
| 2021-04 | us | 0.745193 |
| 2021-05 | cn | 0.636097 |
| 2021-05 | us | 0.484262 |
| 2021-06 | cn | 0.549065 |
| 2021-06 | us | 0.508904 |
| 2021-07 | cn | 0.595837 |
| 2021-07 | us | 0.558580 |
| 2021-08 | cn | 0.297548 |
| 2021-08 | us | 0.618660 |
| 2021-09 | cn | 0.437442 |
| 2021-09 | us | 0.285300 |
| 2021-10 | cn | 0.526673 |
| 2021-10 | us | 0.515622 |
| 2021-11 | cn | 0.565979 |
| 2021-11 | us | 0.626796 |
| 2021-12 | cn | 0.407141 |
| 2021-12 | us | 0.718978 |
| 2022-01 | cn | 0.469520 |
| 2022-01 | us | 0.583860 |
| 2022-02 | cn | 0.480896 |
| 2022-02 | us | 0.647651 |
| 2022-03 | cn | 0.415706 |
| 2022-03 | us | 0.566376 |
| 2022-04 | cn | 0.371175 |
| 2022-04 | us | 0.579695 |
| 2022-05 | cn | 0.413047 |
| 2022-05 | us | 0.564102 |
| 2022-06 | cn | 0.530373 |
| 2022-06 | us | 0.529136 |
| 2022-07 | cn | 0.616744 |
| 2022-07 | us | 0.454466 |
| 2022-08 | cn | 0.607713 |
| 2022-08 | us | 0.605447 |
| 2022-09 | cn | 0.676599 |
| 2022-09 | us | 0.581197 |
| 2022-10 | cn | 0.674443 |
| 2022-10 | us | 0.583962 |
| 2022-11 | cn | 0.488612 |
| 2022-11 | us | 0.562417 |
| 2022-12 | cn | 0.660757 |
| 2022-12 | us | 0.703320 |
| 2023-01 | cn | 0.710462 |
| 2023-01 | us | 0.540994 |
| 2023-02 | cn | 0.631164 |
| 2023-02 | us | 0.556754 |
| 2023-03 | cn | 0.633053 |
| 2023-03 | us | 0.465850 |
| 2023-04 | cn | 0.551115 |
| 2023-04 | us | 0.602026 |
| 2023-05 | cn | 0.619230 |
| 2023-05 | us | 0.574556 |
| 2023-06 | cn | 0.593943 |
| 2023-06 | us | 0.685668 |
| 2023-07 | cn | 0.555247 |
| 2023-07 | us | 0.547940 |
| 2023-08 | cn | 0.554142 |
| 2023-08 | us | 0.596621 |
| 2023-09 | cn | 0.467566 |
| 2023-09 | us | 0.694973 |
| 2023-10 | cn | 0.525575 |
| 2023-10 | us | 0.626754 |
| 2023-11 | cn | 0.646613 |
| 2023-11 | us | 0.651772 |
| 2023-12 | cn | 0.647179 |
| 2023-12 | us | 0.536377 |
| 2024-01 | cn | 0.513644 |
| 2024-01 | us | 0.565793 |
| 2024-02 | cn | 0.507004 |
| 2024-02 | us | 0.669261 |
| 2024-03 | cn | 0.687549 |
| 2024-03 | us | 0.686224 |
| 2024-04 | cn | 0.447406 |
| 2024-04 | us | 0.577103 |
| 2024-05 | cn | 0.540010 |
| 2024-05 | us | 0.693519 |
| 2024-06 | cn | 0.661810 |
| 2024-06 | us | 0.709100 |
| 2024-07 | cn | 0.737439 |
| 2024-07 | us | 0.707151 |
| 2024-08 | cn | 0.692706 |
| 2024-08 | us | 0.692003 |
| 2024-09 | cn | 0.230439 |
| 2024-09 | us | 0.696690 |
| 2024-10 | cn | 0.500709 |
| 2024-10 | us | 0.661152 |
| 2024-11 | cn | 0.613516 |
| 2024-11 | us | 0.752857 |
| 2024-12 | cn | 0.591946 |
| 2024-12 | us | 0.794383 |
| 2025-01 | cn | 0.652588 |
| 2025-01 | us | 0.787479 |
| 2025-02 | cn | 0.664800 |
| 2025-02 | us | 0.688123 |
| 2025-03 | cn | 0.658913 |
| 2025-03 | us | 0.647789 |
| 2025-04 | cn | 0.588124 |
| 2025-04 | us | 0.395709 |
| 2025-05 | cn | 0.623011 |
| 2025-05 | us | 0.589038 |
| 2025-06 | cn | 0.668758 |
| 2025-06 | us | 0.519485 |
| 2025-07 | cn | 0.646637 |
| 2025-07 | us | 0.688917 |
| 2025-08 | cn | 0.633061 |
| 2025-08 | us | 0.420715 |
| 2025-09 | cn | 0.722248 |
| 2025-09 | us | 0.436320 |
| 2025-10 | cn | 0.593450 |
| 2025-10 | us | 0.787865 |
| 2025-11 | cn | 0.711540 |
| 2025-11 | us | 0.752617 |
| 2025-12 | cn | 0.737452 |
| 2025-12 | us | 0.735871 |
| 2026-01 | cn | 0.672179 |
| 2026-01 | us | 0.757296 |
| 2026-02 | cn | 0.640863 |
| 2026-02 | us | 0.760844 |
| 2026-03 | cn | 0.547092 |
| 2026-03 | us | 0.401948 |
| 2026-04 | cn | 0.607446 |
| 2026-04 | us | 0.355547 |
| 2026-05 | cn | 0.667601 |
| 2026-05 | us | 0.745309 |
| 2026-06 | cn | 0.527761 |
| 2026-06 | us | 0.802967 |
| 2026-07 | cn | 0.444032 |
| 2026-08 | cn | 0.938698 |
十分位单调性（R1-full）
冻结 OOS 分数按十分位分桶后，各桶下月已实现收益的均值（D1=最低分…D10=最高分）——金标准的单调性读数，口径与训练标签完全一致。
口径对齐：桶收益 = close[t+21]/close[t]−1，与训练标签 y_fwd_ret 同一冻结函数、同一研究价格面板——无新收益路径、无 next-open。
最新已实现月：各十分位平均前向收益
每区域一栏，取该区域最新已实现月；纵轴对称缩放以便双栏可比。D1=最低分…D10=最高分。
US
2026-06-30 · n=492
CN
2026-06-30 · n=929
USCN
数据表（各区域最近 24 个月）
| 区域 · 月份 | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us · 2024-09-30 | -0.0042 | -0.0028 | -0.0004 | -0.0176 | -0.0153 | 0.0113 | -0.0027 | -0.0335 | -0.0047 | 0.0263 |
| us · 2024-10-31 | 0.0597 | 0.0670 | 0.0727 | 0.0665 | 0.0665 | 0.0664 | 0.0442 | 0.0638 | 0.0379 | 0.0506 |
| us · 2024-11-29 | -0.0697 | -0.0798 | -0.0766 | -0.0662 | -0.0668 | -0.0730 | -0.0530 | -0.0521 | -0.0506 | -0.0456 |
| us · 2024-12-24 (—) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| us · 2024-12-31 | 0.0230 | 0.0218 | 0.0375 | 0.0439 | 0.0293 | 0.0390 | 0.0213 | 0.0226 | 0.0326 | 0.0253 |
| us · 2025-01-31 | -0.0233 | -0.0391 | -0.0427 | -0.0370 | -0.0238 | -0.0452 | -0.0353 | -0.0188 | -0.0238 | -0.0398 |
| us · 2025-02-28 | -0.0387 | -0.0507 | -0.0434 | -0.0398 | -0.0446 | -0.0550 | -0.0249 | -0.0264 | 0.0014 | -0.0318 |
| us · 2025-03-24 (—) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| us · 2025-03-31 | -0.0378 | -0.0346 | -0.0303 | -0.0426 | -0.0031 | -0.0341 | -0.0214 | -0.0106 | -0.0108 | 0.0010 |
| us · 2025-04-30 | 0.0379 | 0.0345 | 0.0379 | 0.0401 | 0.0431 | 0.0403 | 0.0540 | 0.0410 | 0.0204 | 0.1016 |
| us · 2025-05-30 | -0.0026 | 0.0189 | 0.0297 | 0.0390 | 0.0505 | 0.0522 | 0.0469 | 0.0543 | 0.0768 | 0.1077 |
| us · 2025-06-30 | -0.0012 | 0.0274 | 0.0175 | 0.0237 | 0.0088 | 0.0124 | 0.0544 | -0.0066 | 0.0083 | 0.0426 |
| us · 2025-07-31 | 0.0351 | 0.0219 | 0.0277 | 0.0351 | 0.0415 | 0.0355 | 0.0218 | 0.0216 | 0.0222 | 0.0190 |
| us · 2025-08-29 | 0.0162 | 0.0027 | 0.0080 | -0.0084 | -0.0014 | -0.0166 | -0.0080 | -0.0034 | 0.0457 | 0.0503 |
| us · 2025-09-30 | -0.0289 | -0.0186 | -0.0202 | -0.0234 | -0.0074 | -0.0129 | -0.0079 | 0.0209 | -0.0093 | 0.0138 |
| us · 2025-10-31 | 0.0252 | 0.0127 | 0.0278 | 0.0019 | 0.0132 | 0.0261 | -0.0082 | 0.0234 | 0.0198 | -0.0170 |
| us · 2025-11-28 | 0.0057 | 0.0351 | 0.0294 | 0.0207 | -0.0028 | -0.0018 | 0.0221 | 0.0041 | 0.0372 | -0.0095 |
| us · 2025-12-31 | 0.0404 | 0.0166 | 0.0315 | 0.0321 | 0.0352 | 0.0514 | 0.0257 | 0.0239 | 0.0659 | 0.0487 |
| us · 2026-01-30 | 0.0205 | 0.0078 | 0.0035 | 0.0297 | 0.0285 | 0.0290 | 0.0392 | 0.0127 | 0.0037 | 0.0172 |
| us · 2026-02-27 | -0.0806 | -0.0643 | -0.0877 | -0.0975 | -0.0487 | -0.0808 | -0.0704 | -0.0979 | -0.0648 | -0.0835 |
| us · 2026-03-31 | 0.0221 | 0.0261 | 0.0436 | 0.0254 | 0.0252 | 0.0761 | 0.0292 | 0.0413 | 0.0638 | 0.1967 |
| us · 2026-04-30 | -0.0141 | -0.0021 | 0.0020 | 0.0159 | 0.0223 | 0.0416 | 0.0311 | 0.0671 | -0.0064 | 0.0862 |
| us · 2026-05-29 | 0.0584 | 0.0212 | 0.0211 | 0.0218 | 0.0036 | -0.0069 | 0.0291 | 0.0324 | 0.0326 | -0.0094 |
| us · 2026-06-30 | 0.0448 | 0.0345 | 0.0263 | 0.0471 | 0.0251 | 0.0164 | 0.0164 | 0.0598 | 0.0029 | -0.0081 |
| cn · 2024-09-30 | 0.0385 | -0.0077 | -0.0175 | 0.0292 | 0.0049 | -0.0008 | 0.0041 | -0.0015 | 0.0310 | 0.0168 |
| cn · 2024-10-31 | 0.0190 | 0.0368 | -0.0026 | 0.0006 | 0.0213 | 0.0111 | -0.0091 | 0.0049 | 0.0206 | 0.0468 |
| cn · 2024-11-29 | 0.0238 | 0.0162 | 0.0017 | 0.0093 | 0.0358 | -0.0002 | 0.0205 | -0.0312 | -0.0270 | 0.0208 |
| cn · 2024-12-31 | -0.0022 | 0.0128 | -0.0018 | 0.0022 | 0.0030 | -0.0067 | 0.0175 | -0.0128 | -0.0187 | -0.0311 |
| cn · 2025-01-27 | -0.0061 | 0.0176 | -0.0063 | -0.0045 | 0.0242 | 0.0349 | 0.0676 | 0.0035 | 0.0625 | 0.0573 |
| cn · 2025-02-28 | -0.0126 | -0.0086 | 0.0118 | 0.0121 | 0.0117 | -0.0172 | 0.0021 | -0.0285 | 0.0023 | -0.0240 |
| cn · 2025-03-31 | -0.0129 | -0.0420 | -0.0245 | -0.0335 | -0.0511 | -0.0394 | -0.0422 | -0.0490 | -0.0456 | -0.0217 |
| cn · 2025-04-30 | 0.0303 | 0.0447 | 0.0170 | 0.0345 | 0.0231 | 0.0145 | 0.0089 | 0.0214 | 0.0051 | 0.0297 |
| cn · 2025-05-30 | 0.0166 | 0.0306 | 0.0280 | 0.0202 | 0.0323 | 0.0121 | 0.0101 | 0.0320 | 0.0689 | 0.0006 |
| cn · 2025-06-30 | 0.0824 | 0.0509 | 0.0657 | 0.0384 | 0.0510 | 0.0692 | 0.0523 | 0.0585 | 0.0714 | 0.0798 |
| cn · 2025-07-31 | 0.0289 | 0.0502 | 0.1089 | 0.1104 | 0.0650 | 0.1023 | 0.0591 | 0.1001 | 0.1212 | 0.2390 |
| cn · 2025-08-29 | -0.0421 | -0.0265 | -0.0163 | 0.0059 | -0.0203 | 0.0562 | 0.0339 | 0.0249 | 0.0974 | 0.0776 |
| cn · 2025-09-30 | 0.0671 | 0.0321 | 0.0381 | 0.0134 | 0.0451 | 0.0118 | 0.0058 | -0.0137 | -0.0293 | -0.0241 |
| cn · 2025-10-31 | -0.0276 | -0.0183 | -0.0147 | -0.0172 | -0.0138 | -0.0335 | -0.0165 | -0.0096 | -0.0321 | -0.0248 |
| cn · 2025-11-28 | 0.0012 | 0.0097 | 0.0016 | 0.0366 | 0.0291 | 0.0178 | 0.0288 | 0.0030 | 0.0170 | 0.0328 |
| cn · 2025-12-31 | -0.0034 | -0.0088 | 0.0295 | 0.0172 | 0.0145 | 0.0334 | -0.0012 | -0.0120 | 0.0138 | -0.0103 |
| cn · 2026-01-30 | -0.0209 | -0.0002 | -0.0012 | 0.0385 | 0.0182 | -0.0043 | 0.0329 | 0.0378 | -0.0166 | 0.0056 |
| cn · 2026-02-27 | -0.0662 | -0.0875 | -0.0646 | -0.0560 | -0.0553 | -0.0767 | -0.0675 | -0.0405 | -0.0148 | -0.0652 |
| cn · 2026-03-31 | 0.0359 | 0.0274 | 0.0242 | 0.0524 | 0.0349 | 0.0309 | 0.0510 | 0.0625 | 0.1044 | 0.0975 |
| cn · 2026-04-30 | -0.0545 | -0.0604 | -0.0869 | -0.0667 | -0.0906 | -0.0218 | -0.0354 | 0.0770 | 0.0239 | 0.0833 |
| cn · 2026-05-29 | -0.0756 | -0.0660 | -0.0254 | -0.0704 | -0.0720 | -0.0512 | -0.0465 | 0.0084 | 0.0008 | 0.0582 |
| cn · 2026-06-30 | 0.0530 | 0.0138 | 0.0319 | 0.0298 | 0.0135 | 0.0119 | 0.0456 | -0.0634 | -0.0379 | -0.1678 |
| cn · 2026-07-31 (—) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| cn · 2026-08-03 (—) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
已实现 132 / 155 个月度截面（未实现窗口与缺失区域面板如实为 null，不裁剪不猜测）。
D10 − D1 价差时间序列（按区域）
共享月份轴上的双区域价差线；零线为冻结零假设参考——价差持续显著偏离零才构成对 NULL 的挑战。
数据血缘流
一手来源族 → 面板类别 → 新鲜度三层流图（节点面积=面板数）。每个终端数字的出处、节奏与许可能在此一眼溯源——反泄漏纪律的可视化。
数据表（无障碍与降级回退）
56| panel key | source family | category | as_of | license |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| headline_provenance | Aionis derived / frozen | 日更 | 2026-08-05 | Aionis append-only ledger (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| ledger_audit | Aionis derived / frozen | 日更 | — | Aionis append-only ledger (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| lineage_graph | Aionis derived / frozen | 日更 | 2026-10-15 | Aionis-derived from U.S. SEC EDGAR public domain disclosures |
| party_index | Aionis derived / frozen | 日更 | — | Aionis-derived from U.S. House Clerk public-domain PTR parses |
| theme_signals | Aionis derived / frozen | 日更 | 2026-09-16 | Tiingo/Alpaca free tier (vendor ToS, display-only) + GDELT open data |
| evidence_matrix | Aionis derived / frozen | 源节奏 | 2026-08-05 | Aionis frozen artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| form13f_stars | Aionis derived / frozen | 源节奏 | — | Aionis-derived from U.S. SEC EDGAR public-domain 13F parses |
| knowledge_shelf | Aionis derived / frozen | 源节奏 | 2026-10-10 | Aionis repo docs (repo PolyForm-NC) + editorial link-out bookmarks |
| bps_sweep | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | — | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| calibration_reliability | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-06 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| evidence | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | — | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| horizon_robustness | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-07-30 | Aionis exploratory ledger row (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| ic_deciles | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | — | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| ic_monthly | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-06 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| metrics | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-08-03 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| model_health | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | — | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| model_inventory | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-08-08 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| pick_conviction | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-08-03 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| picks | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-08-03 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| picks_backtest | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-06-30 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| picks_meta | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-08-03 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| power_floor | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | — | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| sector_breakdown | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-08-03 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| shorts | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-08-03 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| sigma_survey | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | — | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| stock_universe | Aionis derived / frozen | 冻结 | 2026-08-03 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| def14a_persons | EDGAR / SEC | 日更 | 2026-10-15 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| executives | EDGAR / SEC | 日更 | 2026-10-15 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| filing_stream | EDGAR / SEC | 日更 | 2026-10-16 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| form4 | EDGAR / SEC | 日更 | 2026-10-13 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| form8k | EDGAR / SEC | 日更 | 2026-10-15 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| form_d | EDGAR / SEC | 日更 | 2026-10-16 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| form_def14a | EDGAR / SEC | 日更 | 2026-10-15 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| ipo | EDGAR / SEC | 日更 | 2026-10-16 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| stakes_13g | EDGAR / SEC | 日更 | 2026-10-15 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| companies_dir | EDGAR / SEC | 源节奏 | — | SEC EDGAR public domain (17 U.S.C. §105) |
| filers13f | EDGAR / SEC | 源节奏 | 2026-08-21 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| form13f | EDGAR / SEC | 源节奏 | 2026-06-30 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| smart_money | EDGAR / SEC | 源节奏 | 2026-10-15 | U.S. SEC EDGAR — public domain |
| market_context | Other / mixed | 日更 | 2026-09 | Tiingo/Alpaca free tier (vendor ToS, display-only) + FRED (public domain) |
| taco | Other / mixed | 日更 | 2026-10 | FRED (public domain) + labeled public news events |
| theme_etfs | Other / mixed | 日更 | 2026-10-15 | iShares/BlackRock + Global X official fund CSVs — publicly published daily |
| korea_proxy | Other / mixed | 源节奏 | 2026-08-14 | U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED DEXKOUS) — public domain |
| provider_vintage | Other / mixed | 源节奏 | — | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| model_card | Other / mixed | 冻结 | 2026-07-28 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| score_diagnostics | Other / mixed | 冻结 | 2026-08 | Aionis research artifacts (repo PolyForm-NC) |
| macro_drivers | FRED / ALFRED | 日更 | 2026-10 | FRED/ALFRED — U.S. Government public domain |
| themes | FRED / ALFRED | 日更 | 2026-10-16 | Tiingo/Alpaca free tier (vendor ToS, display-only) + GDELT open data |
| freight_taco | FRED / ALFRED | 源节奏 | 2026-06 | U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics — public domain |
| politician_trades | US Congress PTR | 日更 | 2026-08-18 | U.S. House Clerk — public domain |
| politician_trades_tx | US Congress PTR | 日更 | 2026-08-18 00:00:00 | U.S. House Clerk — public domain |
| Reddit / ApeWisdom | 日更 | — | Reddit public Atom RSS — Reddit ToS, display-only | |
| reddit_trending | Reddit / ApeWisdom | 日更 | 2026-10-16 | ApeWisdom free public API (apewisdom.io) — vendor ToS, display-only |
| ark | ARK funds | 日更 | 2026-10-16 | ARK Invest official fund CSVs — publicly published daily |
| cot | CFTC | 源节奏 | 2026-10-06 | U.S. CFTC — public domain |
| news_feed | GDELT | 日更 | 2026-10-15T10:00:00Z | GDELT open data (facts; article copyright stays with publishers) |
56 个面板 · 2026-06 → 2026-10
Freshness/provenance map of every terminal panel. frozen = derived from frozen OOS artifacts (ledger #49 lineage): the daily lane deliberately does NOT advance these — recomputing them from newer data would be rerun-to-significance. daily = recomputed by each CI refresh from live caches. cadence = advances on its source's publication rhythm (CFTC weekly, price caches ~5-day grace, EDGAR filing rhythm). as_of is read from each panel's own timestamp fields; null = the panel carries no observation date (static research artifact). rows is the len() of the panel's exported row list — computed from the committed payload, never a declared total; null = index/series panel with no natural row table (the terminal home's directory-scale counts render from it). The only legal way frozen numbers move forward: E3 forward-live accumulation or a new pre-registered phase. source_health quantifies field-level quality on the committed JSONs (smart_money ticker nulls = filings on unlisted targets honestly left empty; reddit bull_ratio nulls = sentiment not yet gradable in the accumulating window; cot staleness in weeks vs the Friday publication rhythm). planned lists panels that are NOT built — no fetcher, no data, no endpoint payload — disclosed so the panel count is never mistaken for coverage.