这是哪类市场（market regime）？美联储政策、机构多空押注、关税冲击三力定调——界定主张适用的语境域
语境 · 总统↔美联储博弈下的市场制度？
川普元年市场全景
自 2016 以来的美股等权指数与 VIX。核心矛盾是总统（关税/财政）与美联储（利率/独立性）的博弈——美联储加息/降息周期驱动美元与全市场；总统关税与对美联储独立性的干预（如 2025 米兰入理事会）构成政策冲击。事件标记聚焦三条结构性主线，非个人仪式。模型 OOS 自 2021 起叠加。
2016 → · President ↔ Fed128 mo · VIX 15.49 · 2016-02 → 2026-09
最新汇率
1414.29
4 周变化
-0.23%
52 周压力位
3%
口径披露：这是韩国散户杠杆维度的降级代理（业主方案 C），不是融资余额（신용융자）——六条一手路线已实证封锁（KRX 付费市场），证据链见 archive/krx-probes；业主执行方案 A（购买数据）或 B（韩国网络出口）后将以真实融资余额替换本卡。
CPI 同比
4.02%
非农就业 同比
0.31%
联邦基金利率
3.88%
CPI 4.02% (vs 2% target · 目标) · payrolls 0.31% YoY · Fed funds 3.88%
Heuristic, not a forecast · 启发式参考，非预测
方法论
Market context since 2016. The structural axis is the President (tariffs/fiscal) ↔ Federal Reserve (rates/independence) tug-of-war: the Fed hike/cut cycle drives the dollar and all markets; presidential tariffs and Fed-independence interference (e.g. Miran's 2025 Fed Board appointment) are policy shocks. VIX = monthly mean of FRED VIXCLS (permissive, US-gov public domain). US index = equal-weight cross-sectional mean of monthly returns across the Track B panel (~566 S&P 500 PIT constituents), rebased to 100 at 2016-02. Events are publicly verifiable milestones on the three structural levers (Fed cycle / trade / Fed-independence), not personal ceremonies. China-market milestones (region 'cn') enter the event table as global-context disclosure: they annotate the world around the US-only index chart, not the plotted series itself. Display-only.