Aionis

参考 · 学术界引用什么，我们就让什么可引用——包括 null

引用 · Cite this null

项目级引用镜像 CITATION.cff（契约测试钉死同步）；每个预注册主张另有独立 BibTeX 条目——引用一个紧 CI 的 null 与引用一个阳性发现同样正当（注册报告精神：结果在哪发表，主张就在哪终结）。

项目引用（镜像 CITATION.cff）

The Aionis Authors · v0.1.0 · 2026-09-01 · PolyForm-Noncommercial-1.0.0 · https://github.com/Rethymus/Aionis · 数据 API 目录

@misc{aionis-research-harness,
  author       = {{The Aionis Authors}},
  title        = {Aionis: a falsifiable, anti-leakage quantitative-finance research harness},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/Rethymus/Aionis}},
  url          = {https://rethymus.github.io/Aionis/},
  version      = {0.1.0},
  note         = {License: PolyForm-Noncommercial-1.0.0. Four pre-registered incremental-information claims and the first chronological confirmatory OOS all returned NULL with tight CIs — the intended, registered outcome. See docs/RESULTS.md.}
}

GitHub 仓库页的「Cite this repository」按钮提供同源引用格式。

逐主张 · Cite this null

Phase B — NULL · 可引用
@misc{aionis-phase-b-null,
  author       = {{The Aionis Authors}},
  title        = {Aionis Phase B claim: no incremental predictability from fundamental timing (filed-date PIT vs period-end+lag) (null result)},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = jul,
  howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/Rethymus/Aionis}},
  note         = {pre-registered two-tailed claim; ledger row \#28; config sha 17245a75d2d4cd17; differential -0.0008, 95\% CI [-0.0106, 0.0090]; p 0.870; verdict NULL (CI brackets zero)}
}
Phase C — NULL · 可引用
@misc{aionis-phase-c-null,
  author       = {{The Aionis Authors}},
  title        = {Aionis Phase C claim: no incremental predictability from world-state surprise bundle (CPI/NFP/VIX/earnings) (null result)},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = jul,
  howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/Rethymus/Aionis}},
  note         = {pre-registered two-tailed claim; ledger row \#30; config sha a7fdb48f5942fae1; differential -0.0065, 95\% CI [-0.0195, 0.0066]; p 0.355; verdict NULL (CI brackets zero)}
}
Phase E1 — NULL · 可引用
@misc{aionis-phase-e1-null,
  author       = {{The Aionis Authors}},
  title        = {Aionis Phase E1 claim: no incremental predictability from cross-firm shock propagation beyond own shocks (null result)},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = jul,
  howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/Rethymus/Aionis}},
  note         = {pre-registered two-tailed claim; ledger row \#37; config sha ef321e9ee8088046; differential -0.0028, 95\% CI [-0.0115, 0.0059]; p 0.533; verdict NULL (CI brackets zero)}
}
Phase D — NULL · 可引用
@misc{aionis-phase-d-null,
  author       = {{The Aionis Authors}},
  title        = {Aionis Phase D claim: no incremental predictability from relationship bundle (SIC peer momentum + 13D events) (null result)},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = jul,
  howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/Rethymus/Aionis}},
  note         = {pre-registered two-tailed claim; ledger row \#34; config sha d31580630ff35326; differential -0.0030, 95\% CI [-0.0137, 0.0078]; p 0.597; verdict NULL (CI brackets zero)}
}
Track C — NULL · 可引用
@misc{aionis-track-c-null,
  author       = {{The Aionis Authors}},
  title        = {Aionis Track C claim: no incremental predictability from dual-region joint chronological confirmatory OOS (S\&P 500 + CSI 300) (null result)},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = aug,
  howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/Rethymus/Aionis}},
  note         = {pre-registered two-tailed claim; ledger row \#49; differential -0.0088, 95\% CI [-0.0336, 0.0159]; p 0.484; verdict NULL (CI brackets zero)}
}

条目由 committed evidence_matrix 面板确定性生成（数字逐位、账本行号与 config sha 入 note）——无手抄。

发表记录（如实）

载体状态说明
docs/RESULTS.md（仓库内自发表）全部主张的最终归宿无期刊发表——按注册报告精神与业主决策，null 在本仓如实自发表；外部验证文献见 RESULTS §0（那不是我们的论文，只作学科锚点）。

出现正式预印本/论文时本表将如实更新。