Aionis

效度 · 每个预注册主张一张可引用卡（OSAP Signal Browser 的 null 版）

Phase E1 · 主张卡

cross-firm shock propagation beyond own shocks

-0.002895% CI [-0.0115, 0.0059] · p 0.533 · n=125NULL · CI 跨零zero-LLM

① prereg

docs/phase-e-preregistration.md

2026-08-31

② ledger #37

2026-07-29

confirmatory:first · sig ef321e9e

④ verify

本机一条命令复核四环链：

uv run python scripts/verify_claim.py E1

引用本主张（BibTeX）

@misc{aionis-phase-e1-null,
  author       = {{The Aionis Authors}},
  title        = {Aionis Phase E1 claim: no incremental predictability from cross-firm shock propagation beyond own shocks (null result)},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = jul,
  howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/Rethymus/Aionis}},
  note         = {pre-registered two-tailed claim; ledger row \#37; config sha ef321e9ee8088046; differential -0.0028, 95\% CI [-0.0115, 0.0059]; p 0.533; verdict NULL (CI brackets zero)}
}

由 committed 面板确定性生成；也可在 /cite 页一键获取全部主张条目。