Aionis

语境 · 总统↔美联储博弈下的市场制度？

川普元年市场全景

自 2016 以来的美股等权指数与 VIX。核心矛盾是总统（关税/财政）与美联储（利率/独立性）的博弈——美联储加息/降息周期驱动美元与全市场；总统关税与对美联储独立性的干预（如 2025 米兰入理事会）构成政策冲击。事件标记聚焦三条结构性主线，非个人仪式。模型 OOS 自 2021 起叠加。

2016 → · President ↔ Fed

128 mo · VIX 15.58 · 2016-02 → 2026-09

累计总回报
+274%
峰值指数
390
峰值 VIX
57.7
时间跨度
128 月
市场指数 × VIX（2016 至今）
左轴：美股等权指数（2016-02=100）。右轴：VIX 月均。蓝虚线 = 川普首次当选。
市场风险（等权 S&P 500）
2016→最新等权月收益的风险统计 · 展示用，非策略风险
Sharpe0.85
Sortino1.34
Max Drawdown-26.9%
Calmar0.50
VaR 95%-6.7%
CVaR 95%-10.0%
Annual return13.3%
Months128
韩国风险偏好代理（USD/KRW）1414.29 · 2026-08-14
韩元兑美元汇率（FRED DEXKOUS，周频，公共域）——韩元急贬通常伴随资金外流与融资强平压力。

最新汇率

1414.29

4 周变化

-0.23%

52 周压力位

3%

口径披露：这是韩国散户杠杆维度的降级代理（业主方案 C），不是融资余额（신용융자）——六条一手路线已实证封锁（KRX 付费市场），证据链见 archive/krx-probes；业主执行方案 A（购买数据）或 B（韩国网络出口）后将以真实融资余额替换本卡。

关键事件
公开可验证的市场里程碑事件。
2018-03-22贸易US-China tariff war begins
2020-03-23危机COVID market bottom
2022-03-16货币Fed liftoff (hike cycle begins from zero)
2023-07-26货币Fed peak 5.25-5.50% (cycle top)
2024-09-18货币Fed first cut 50bp (pivot)
2025-02-01贸易Canada/Mexico/China tariff hike
2025-03-12美联储博弈Miran confirmed CEA chair (Fed-rollback architect)
2025-04-02贸易Reciprocal tariffs announced (Liberation Day)
2025-04-09贸易Reciprocal tariffs suspended (TACO origin)
2025-05-12贸易US-China Geneva truce
2025-08-07美联储博弈Trump nominates Miran to Fed Board (replacing Kugler)
2025-09-16美联储博弈Miran confirmed to Fed Board — independence concern
2025-09-17货币Fed cut to 4.00-4.25%
2025-10-23政治A 股二十届四中全会闭幕：「十五五」规划建议获通过
2026-08-19危机A 股A股暴跌：沪指 -2.4% 失守 3900，创业板 -6.26%
2026-08-19新股A 股宇树科技上市首日 +460%
滞涨风险 · Stagflation watch
Elevated · 升高

CPI 同比

4.02%

非农就业 同比

0.31%

联邦基金利率

3.88%

CPI 4.02% (vs 2% target · 目标) · payrolls 0.31% YoY · Fed funds 3.88%

Heuristic, not a forecast · 启发式参考，非预测

方法论

Market context since 2016. The structural axis is the President (tariffs/fiscal) ↔ Federal Reserve (rates/independence) tug-of-war: the Fed hike/cut cycle drives the dollar and all markets; presidential tariffs and Fed-independence interference (e.g. Miran's 2025 Fed Board appointment) are policy shocks. VIX = monthly mean of FRED VIXCLS (permissive, US-gov public domain). US index = equal-weight cross-sectional mean of monthly returns across the Track B panel (~566 S&P 500 PIT constituents), rebased to 100 at 2016-02. Events are publicly verifiable milestones on the three structural levers (Fed cycle / trade / Fed-independence), not personal ceremonies. China-market milestones (region 'cn') enter the event table as global-context disclosure: they annotate the world around the US-only index chart, not the plotted series itself. Display-only.