TACO 压力指数
川普让步指数 · 市场压力越高，川普越可能让步 · 130 VIX mo · 16 events · 2016-01 → 2026-10
已记录让步7升级声明9最新 VIX15.582026-10
关税事件时间线
162025-02
02/01升级Canada/Mexico/China tariff hike
2025-04
04/02升级Reciprocal tariffs announced (Liberation Day)
04/09让步Reciprocal tariffs suspended (TACO origin)
2025-05
05/12让步US-China Geneva truce (tariffs cut)
2025-07
07/21让步Multiple tariff deadlines delayed
2025-08
08/07升级Modified reciprocal tariffs take effect (postponements end)
08/27升级India penalty: +25% for Russian oil (50% total baseline)
2025-10
10/01升级100% branded pharma, 25% trucks, 25%/50% cabinets & furniture take effect
10/10升级Threatens +100% on all Chinese imports (rare-earth dispute), effective Nov 1
10/30让步Trump-Xi Busan truce: fentanyl tariff 20%->10%, rare-earth controls paused
2025-11
11/14让步Agricultural exemptions from reciprocal tariffs (coffee, cocoa, beef, fruit)
2026-01
01/17升级Threatens up to 25% on 8 European countries (Greenland crisis)
01/21让步Europe threat retracted after 'framework of a future deal' with NATO
2026-02
02/02让步India tariffs cut 50%->18% (Russian-oil purchases stop)
02/20升级After SCOTUS strikes IEEPA tariffs: universal 10% reimposed under Sec.122 (150 days)
2026-07
07/24升级Sec.122 expiry: new Sec.301 tariffs (10%/12.5%) on ~60 trading partners
货运 TACO 等价物（BTS TSI）
卫星卡车计数无许可 → 公共域月度货运指数（口径降级，如实披露）